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The US National Science Foundation (NSF) is a storied organization. Literally storied, as it’s integral to the setting, characters and plot points of Kim Stanley Robinson’s Science in the Capital trilogy, one of his many works of climate fiction. Instead of the triumph of science and peace he envisaged in that work of fiction, NSF is now being gutted by the Trump Administration, its decades of amazing work on climate science and solutions on the chopping block.
NSF was founded in 1950 under President Harry S. Truman, who signed the National Science Foundation Act into law on May 10, 1950. The foundation was created in response to growing concerns about scientific research and national security, particularly following the advancements in nuclear physics and technology during World War II.
The push for NSF’s creation was heavily influenced by Vannevar Bush (no relation to the Presidents), who had led the Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) during the war. His 1945 report, Science—The Endless Frontier, argued for a federally funded, independent scientific agency to support basic research, innovation, and technological advancement. Truman, recognizing the importance of sustained scientific progress, supported the effort, though the final version of the NSF Act reflected Congressional compromises over control and funding.
During its first decade NSF primarily funded fundamental scientific research, including atmospheric and oceanic sciences. A major turning point came with the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958), during which it played a crucial role in organizing research on atmospheric circulation, ice sheets, and ocean currents. These efforts laid the foundation for future climate research, marking the beginning of a more structured approach to understanding Earth’s changing environment.
In the 1960s, NSF supported pioneering climate modeling efforts, including research on the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO₂ dynamics. It also provided early funding for paleoclimate studies using ice cores and sediments to reconstruct past climate conditions. In 1965, the U.S. government, with contributions from NSF-funded research, released one of the first official reports outlining the potential impacts of CO₂ emissions on global temperatures, marking a significant early acknowledgment of human-driven climate change.
In the 1970s, NSF expanded its focus on climate science by launching the Research Applied to National Needs program in 1971, which funded climate impact studies and adaptation research. In 1974, it established the Climate Dynamics Program, recognizing the importance of long-term climate studies. During this decade, NSF also supported advancements in general circulation models, which became the foundation of modern climate modeling, helping scientists better understand atmospheric and oceanic interactions driving global climate patterns.
In the 1980s, NSF played a crucial role in advancing climate science by supporting the first major ice core drilling project in Greenland in 1980, providing historical CO₂ data essential for understanding past climate changes. In 1983, funding increased for multidisciplinary climate research following the National Climate Program Act of 1978, reinforcing NSF’s commitment to studying climate systems. By 1988, research backed by NSF contributed to James Hansen’s landmark testimony before Congress on global warming, which helped bring climate change to the forefront of public and political discourse.
In the 1990s, NSF expanded its focus on climate solutions and mitigation by launching interdisciplinary programs aimed at understanding human and environmental interactions. In 1991, it established the Human Dimensions of Global Change program to study the social and economic impacts of climate change. NSF also increased funding for research on climate-energy interactions, including advancements in renewable energy. During this decade, it played a key role in supporting research contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, helping to refine global climate models and inform international climate policy discussions.
In the 2000s, NSF expanded its investment in climate solutions by supporting large-scale initiatives focused on understanding past and future climate shifts. It funded paleoclimate programs to reconstruct historical climate patterns, providing critical context for modern climate trends. A significant portion of NSF’s Office of Polar Programs (OPP) budget—about 60%—is allocated to the operations and maintenance of Antarctic research platforms and infrastructure. The Arctic System Science program advanced research on ice loss and its global implications, while new sustainability science and adaptation programs aimed to develop strategies for resilience in the face of climate change.
In the 2010s, NSF significantly increased funding for climate resilience and adaptation research, recognizing the urgency of addressing global environmental changes. It supported advancements in high-resolution climate modeling, enabling more precise predictions of extreme weather events and long-term climate trends. Investments in artificial intelligence and machine learning enhanced climate data analysis, improving forecasting capabilities and informing policy decisions. During this period, NSF also expanded interdisciplinary research initiatives, integrating climate science with engineering, social sciences, and economics to develop comprehensive strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
In recent years, NSF has continued to drive innovation in climate solutions, funding research on carbon capture technologies, sustainable energy systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure. It has supported studies on the effects of climate change on biodiversity, ocean acidification, and polar ice dynamics, ensuring a broader understanding of environmental shifts. Through international collaborations, NSF has facilitated knowledge-sharing and coordinated research efforts to address climate challenges on a global scale.
All of this has been fully aligned with the original intentions in founding it. Climate change poses significant challenges to U.S. national security, with rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity threatening military infrastructure, global stability, and operational readiness. The Department of Defense has identified climate change as a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating conflicts over food, water, and migration, particularly in already fragile regions. Military bases, including critical naval installations, face increasing risks from flooding and hurricanes, prompting investments in resilience and adaptation strategies. The Pentagon has integrated climate considerations into strategic planning, emphasizing the need for energy efficiency, renewable power adoption, and supply chain security to maintain operational effectiveness.
Naturally, the Trump Administration is slashing funding to NSF, just as it did previously to NIH, including firing the team focused on the rapidly increasing threats of H5N1, the bird flu that’s becoming virulent.
On February 18, 2025, NSF laid off 168 employees, roughly 10 percent of its workforce, in response to an executive order issued by President Donald Trump a week earlier mandating large-scale reductions in the federal workforce. The layoffs primarily affected probationary employees, including those who had recently been reclassified from permanent to probationary status without prior notice, a move that has sparked legal and ethical concerns.
Part-time expert appointees, many of whom were distinguished scientists and researchers advising NSF on critical policy and grant decisions, were also dismissed. These experts, often leading figures in their respective fields, played a crucial role in shaping national research priorities, evaluating grant proposals, and providing independent scientific assessments. Their removal has raised concerns about the future of evidence-based policymaking within the agency and the potential erosion of the scientific integrity that has long guided NSF’s funding decisions.
NSF is currently led by Director Sethuraman Panchanathan, who has been in office since June 2020. He has overseen major initiatives in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and climate science research while advocating for increased federal funding for scientific innovation. Under his leadership, NSF expanded international research collaborations and launched programs to strengthen STEM education and workforce development. He played a key role in implementing the CHIPS and Science Act, aiming to boost U.S. competitiveness in emerging technologies. Once again, the CHIPS and Science Act is core to U.S. national security concerns, aiming as it does to reshore the semiconductor manufacturing that is integral to U.S. weapons systems.
In response to recent workforce reductions, NSF’s Chief Management Officer, Micah Cheatham, addressed staff during a meeting, stating that the recent layoffs are “the first of many forthcoming workforce reductions.” He indicated that it was likely that 50% of NSF’s staff would be fired within six months.
As of February 2025, the Trump’s administration has expanded its list of prohibited terms in research and governmental reports to include climate change-related language. Terms such as “climate change,” “global warming,” and “emissions reduction” have been targeted for removal from official communications. This Orwellian language control was common in totalitarian regimes of the past and it’s indicative of the likely fate of all research related to climate science and solutions in NSF.
Scientific research has been fundamental to U.S. global competitiveness, driving technological innovation, economic growth, and national security for decades. Advances in fields such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, biotechnology, and quantum computing positioned the U.S. as a leader in emerging industries, fostering high-value jobs and maintaining a strategic edge over global rivals. Federal investment in research ensured that American institutions remained at the forefront of discovery, attracting top talent and enabling breakthroughs that shaped the global economy.
The new US Cultural Revolution is ending that, just as it is ending the influx of highly skilled, trained and talented resources from around the world under the H1B program. That program has been essential in attracting the best and brightest immigrants to the United States, fueling innovation, economic growth, and technological leadership. By providing a pathway for highly skilled professionals in fields such as engineering, medicine, and artificial intelligence, the program has strengthened the country’s workforce and global competitiveness. Many of the most influential tech companies, including those in Silicon Valley, were founded or led by immigrants who initially came to the U.S. on H-1B visas.
Today, more than 40% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, underscoring the outsized role of foreign-born talent in shaping the U.S. economy. The program has also played a critical role in advancing research, particularly in universities and national laboratories, where foreign-born scientists contributed to breakthroughs in critical fields. Restricting or limiting access to H-1B visas risks driving top talent to competing nations, undermining the U.S.’s ability to lead in science, technology, and innovation.
U.S. researchers will now be offered research positions in global institutions. Global talent and researchers will stop flowing to the United States. The policies of the Trump Administration are leading directly to a brain drain out of and away from the country. They are hindering climate science research globally.
My thoughts are with the talented researchers, academics and bureaucrats who have so thoughtfully and wisely focused their efforts on some of the leading challenges of the 21st Century, and whose lives are now in turmoil. I hope their landings are soft and swift, so that their voices and talents are not lost to the rest of the world, even as their country turns its backs on them.
As I wrote after the election, the world is moving on without the United States as it declines.
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