Regarding FSD & Robotaxis, I Don’t Think Elon Musk Has Been “Lying” For A Decade

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I’ve seen this claim countless times, and I understand where it’s coming from, but I don’t believe it. I normally brush past it, but given that a top computer scientist known as the “Godfather of AI” just said it, and also given the enormous controversy and confusion around Elon Musk these days (or, well, maybe most of his life), I feel compelled to finally address it — and also address how the fundamental issues may relate to a lot of other important things.

The claim is that Elon Musk has been lying to everyone about Full Self Driving for years. More specifically, this has concerned his claims over the past several years that Tesla vehicles would be capable, technologically, of operating as robotaxis “next year” or “by the end of the year.” Musk kicked off these claims in 2016, if I recall correctly, when he said on a quarterly Tesla shareholder conference call, “Well, again, major product announcements are not — I shouldn’t do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I’d say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we’ve got under development is going to blow people’s minds. It blows my mind, so….” If I remember correctly, this is the first serious statement he made that implied robotaxis would be coming soon. But before we go further on those ongoing claims, let’s get back to what the “Godfather of AI” just said.

Yann LeCun, VP & Chief AI Scientist at Meta, wrote: “Elon: ‘I’ve kept lying to you again and again about Tesla’s ‘Full Self Driving’ capabilities for the last 8 years, but you should believe everything I say about politics and everything else.’” This was a short comment he made while sharing a long critique of Elon’s FSD claims over the years. He added in response to someone who wasn’t a fan of his Musk “hating” on X: “I don’t hate Elon. I hate his lies. I like his cars, rockets, and satellite network.” (Hat tip to Futurism.)

Lying is saying something you know is not true. Yes, I do think Musk has lied a few times about FSD (and I don’t excuse him for that), but generally speaking, people use this word when talking about his completely off-the-mark forecasts about Tesla robotaxi capability. Remember the LA-to-NYC trip a Tesla was supposed to make autonomously? Remember all the times he predicted Tesla vehicles would be capable of operating as robotaxis in a couple of years, next year, or even by the end of the year? I’m not going to dig them all up and timestamp them right now, but there have been many, and I assume they are documented in the Dan O’Dowd article Yann LeCun was responding to. The point is that he has made these statements, they were wrong, and it has basically become a running joke — because how many years in a row can you make a very similar projection and be wrong? And that’s part of why people have called it lying or called him a “snake oil salesman.”

Musk himself has said that he’s just overly optimistic, especially with timelines. Others close to him, like his brother Kimbal, have said the same. I think this is part of it, but only part of it. The fact that I have come to see this as only part of it is potentially an important point.

If it was just about timing, well, no one is saying all of the completely off-the-mark predictions aren’t important*, but the idea that his brain just lacks a proper calendar and everything will be true in time is more palatable for fans than doubting his core understanding of the matter. (*Sorry, that’s a false statement actually — many Elon fans do contend that all of those missed forecasts aren’t important.) The critique of his timelines is a popular one among fans. You can’t reasonably ignore that his FSD/robotaxi predictions have been horrible when it comes to timing, but you can put a positive spin on it by saying that he just thinks that far ahead of everyone else and doesn’t expect it to take so long to get there.

However, he’s actually got a varied track regard with the timing of things. His long-term forecasts for Tesla production and sales from the early 2010s, and even before that, were almost spot on looking at what the company achieved in 2020. There were some bad short-term forecasts within that timeframe, but the long-term forecast was crazy good. (I wrote about this back in 2020 or so, with documentation from an early Tesla slidedeck for investors and early statements from Musk.) But his forecasts on some other things — solar glass roof tiles, deployment of the Tesla Semi, Tesla Cybertruck pricing and range, Tesla battery developments, Tesla solar growth, the need (or lack thereof) for physical stores — have been much worse. So, yes, sometimes he nails it but everything takes longer than expected; other times, contrary to what some fans believe, his assumptions and predictions are just off.

With rocket ships and electric cars, we’ve seen that his initial ideas regarding certain possibilities in these realms and his obsession with turning those ideas into reality have led to great success at Tesla and SpaceX. That term “obsession” is purposeful. When he has assumed things that were not true, on the other hand, and applied his obsession to the task, he has ended up with notable failures.

As we’ve seen him tweet about a variety of other matters in recent years, we’ve seen a similar kind of obsession with a few different matters. In 2022, he tweeted, “I’m thinking of creating a ‘Super Moderate Super PAC’ that supports candidates with centrist views from all parties.” Anyone who follows his tweets these days should laugh out loud at the idea that Musk would support “moderate” politicians. He has become highly controversial, he has repeatedly tweeted extremist conspiracy theories, he has become highly partisan, he has engaged in frequent name calling and personal attacks, and he has even gone to battle numerous times with moderate politicians, not to mention moderate normal people. The thing is that he gets obsessive over an idea, and that can lead to more and more extreme behavior and failures rather than adjusting and changing course. It can also lead to overcoming difficult obstacles and succeeding in things that are extremely difficult. He’s not really the type of person who’s quick to take in counterarguments and stop believing in an idea — for better or for worse.

That’s where we get back to FSD and robotaxis. Clearly, Musk has put all his faith in these working. I think that each time he made a forecast about these coming “next year” or such, he strongly believed it. Even as Tesla has failed at different steps, Musk has clung to the initial vision and been adamant it will come true. He hasn’t been lying. He has simply become obsessed with his initial assumptions, time and time again. The question is: is this a case where he’s just off, and the fundamental analysis and prediction won’t come true, or is this a case where he’s got the fundamentals down, and he just needs time to be proven right? We shall see….