The Australian resources sector is poised for sustained strength in 2025, underpinned by robust export volumes and a strong pipeline of projects despite global commodity price pressures.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) for December 2024 and the Resources and Energy Major Projects Report highlight an industry weathering softer conditions with confidence.
Resource export earnings are forecast to decline by 10 per cent to $372 billion in the 2024–25 financial year (FY25), down from $415 billion in FY24, primarily due to easing prices for iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas amid slow global economic growth.
However, export volumes of key commodities are reaching near-record highs, reflecting resilient demand and improved production conditions.
The sector’s investment pipeline has also expanded, with 455 major projects under development in 2024, up from 421 in 2023.
Critical minerals essential to decarbonisation accounted for 117 projects, reinforcing Australia’s role in driving global clean energy transitions.
Gas projects remained the largest share of committed investments, reflecting enduring global energy needs.
Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King highlighted the sector’s ongoing contributions to the economy.
“These two reports point to a positive outlook for Australia’s resources and energy sector, with more projects in development and more major projects moving to production,” King said.
“Australia’s resources and energy exports continue to support our economy, create wealth, and provide thousands of skilled jobs.
“Australia’s resources are critical to our prosperity, but also to helping the world reduce carbon emissions and reach net-zero by 2050.”
Notable commodity trends included gold surpassing thermal coal to become the nation’s fourth-largest export by value by FY26, driven by safe-haven demand amidst geopolitical tensions.
Alumina prices also surged due to disrupted bauxite supplies, while lithium exports faced a downturn before a predicted recovery in 2025.
Despite challenges, including risks from geopolitical conflicts and potential policy changes from the incoming US administration, the outlook remains stable.
Modest world economic growth and easing monetary conditions are set to drive commodity demand through 2025 and beyond, providing a positive forecast for Australia’s resource-dependent economy.
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