Lower Cost Batteries Will Move The EV Revolution Forward More Quickly – CleanTechnica

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For the past decade, we have been told that the reason electric cars are so expensive is because batteries cost so much, but that someday batteries will cost less, which will make electric cars more affordable. According to Bloomberg, someday is here, at least in some parts of the world. It says the cost of LFP battery cells in China has fallen by 51 per cent to an average of $53/kWh since 2023, which is significantly lower than the average global price of $95/kWh last year. Bloomberg attributes not one but three factors to the falling price of  batteries in China — declining raw material prices, overcapacity, and shrinking margins.

Raw material prices took a big hit in the last one and a half years. For instance, consider the cost of the cathode, the priciest component of a battery cell. Its contribution to the cost of a battery cell has declined from 50% in early 2023 to less than 30% in 2024. China is producing more batteries that automakers need. Its battery factories were running at 51% capacity in 2022 but only at 43% in 2023. Bloomberg estimates those manufacturing facilities will remain even more idle this year. Average prices are closing in on estimated manufacturing costs, suggesting a drop in margins. On the plus side, battery companies are improving battery technology and manufacturing processes, and these enhancements also somewhat contribute to falling prices.

BNEF, which researches commodity markets and revolutionary technologies, estimates battery prices will remain low for at least several more years. That may be bad news for battery manufacturers but wonderful news for the automotive and energy storage sectors. Lower battery prices could help make electric cars cost competitive with conventional cars. They already are cheaper than gasoline-powered cars in China today but of course trade and policy concerns in Europe and the US mean those lower priced batteries may be unavailable to consumers in those countries for years to come.

The battery storage industry could benefit the most from plummeting battery prices. Turnkey deployments already cost 43% less this year compared to 2023. BNEF estimates a 61% increase in stationary storage installations globally this year, for a total of 155 GWh. The policy concerns are not quite so strong when it comes to where the batteries for energy storage originate, perhaps because it is so vitally important to the carbon reduction targets of many nations. Nevertheless, a couple of lunatics in the US Congress last year made a hullabaloo about a battery storage facility at Camp Lejeune that used batteries supplied by CATL. Their partisan caterwauling caused the military to unplug the offending system and replace it with batteries that would not send sensitive information directly to Xi Jinping. It also cost Americans a lot of money, but at least America was safe!

More News About Solid-State Batteries

Recently, some news came clattering into the teletype machines in the CleanTechnica global newsroom about new technology from researchers in China who claim to have found a way to reduce the cost of batteries by 90%. Pretty fantastic news, if true.

According to Interesting Engineering, a team of Chinese researchers has developed a solid-state battery model that promises to be significantly more affordable. The new design, created by the University of Science and Technology of China, promises performance equivalent to other next-generation battery technology at a 90% lower cost. The breakthrough involves a novel solid electrolyte that eliminates the necessity for expensive lithium sulfide (Li2S). This development brings China closer to its goal of being the first to introduce what many see as the future of rechargeable battery technology.

Contrary to traditional batteries, which employ liquid or gel polymer electrolytes, solid-state batteries promise to solve the capacity and safety drawbacks associated with traditional lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries can use oxides or sulfides as the cathode to increase energy density. Because of their superior performance, sulfides are usually regarded as the most promising option for the future practical usage of solid-state batteries, yet their high cost continues to be a barrier. The cost of sulfide solid electrolytes typically exceeds $195 per kilogram, primarily because of the elaborate synthesis process needed to produce electrolytes that rely on costly Li2S.

“Although researchers around the world are striving to reduce the cost through various methods, long-term exploration has shown that it is quite difficult to achieve this goal,” Ma Cheng, a researcher at UTSC, told Science and Technology Daily, according to a report by South China Morning Post. Cheng and his team have developed a new material called LPSO that replaces lithium sulfide. [The former chemistry majors at CleanTechnica surmise this scientific annotation means the new material is composed of lithium, phosphorus, sulfur, and oxygen.] This novel electrolyte is synthesized from two inexpensive compounds [the news reports don’t tell us which ones], bringing the ingredient cost down to just $14.42 per kilogram — about 8% of the cost of raw materials for other sulfide-solid electrolytes.

LPSO retains the key benefits of the best sulfide electrolytes and is compatible with high energy density anodes such as lithium metal and silicon. Despite these promising results, Ma highlighted that further improvements in performance are still anticipated, and the team is actively working towards achieving them.

The Takeaway

For years, CleanTechnica has been saying that electric cars and the batteries that power them are still in their infancy and that there are many exciting advances in technology waiting just around the corner. Just a few days ago, QuantumScape announced it had begun supplying solid-state batteries to several electric car companies. Toyota says it is close to cracking the solid-state battery code. StoreDot is hot on the trail. All of which makes the prognosticators on staff here at CleanTechnica look like geniuses.

Bill Gates once said, “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.” We want every new technology that comes to light in laboratories to be true and immediately find its way into commercial applications, but the world doesn’t work that way, sadly. Even if Ma Cheng is correct, those ultra-cheap batteries won’t be powering electric cars anytime soon. But someday they might, and when that day arrives, will the rest of the world embrace the new technology or spurn it because it originated in China? The answer to that question may be as critical to the success of the EV revolution as any technological breakthrough we can think of.