The all-important ratios of Gold to other markets are in rally mode.
Gold ratios, as illustrated using daily charts of the related ETFs, are very important to the macro case for gold mining.
First off, the Gold/Silver ratio continues trending gently upward. This has not been helpful to commodity trades, but had been helpful to Goldilocks trades (e.g. Tech, Growth). Gold miners are a wild card, because if silver leads they should do well and if gold leads, they will not necessarily do poorly after working off so much excess since mid-2020.
Gold/Commodities ratio is bullish and that bodes well for our longer range counter-cyclical view.
Gold/Oil ratio is in consolidation. Neutral for now. We’ve noted for months now that the rise in Gold (product) vs. Oil (mining cost driver) in Q4, 2023 was likely to aid gold miners during the reporting season that just wrapped up. Well, with a little lag I guess it did.
Gold/Copper ratio continues to trend gently up. It is thus gently counter-cyclical in its macro signaling.
The Gold/SPX ratio is bouncing after the unsustainable drubbing it took in January and February. If this continues it would remedy an NFTRH macro indicator important to gold mining that has advised caution since mid-2020. Another indicator, which has been kept mostly private, is already aiding the miners after a recent positive divergence.
Hint: Gold/Inflation Expectations continues bullish biased and its relationship to a certain nominal index is key.
Finally, Gold/Global is also on a hard spike while trending a volatile neutral.
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