Geothermal Energy Vs. Natural Gas: The Biggest Loser Is Trump.

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Some “great television” was made at the White House on Friday, when US President Trump acted out his feelings for the viewing pleasure of Russian President Vladimir Trump while shaming himself in front of the international media, Ukraine, the rest of Europe, and all of the world. The performance was shocking but not particularly surprising. After all, Trump makes no secret of his love for Putin and his Soviet-style fossil energy economy, except, of course, when the topic turns to geothermal energy. Wait…what?

“This is gonna be great television” is exactly what Trump told reporters at the end of the televised meeting at the White House on February 28. If you have any thoughts about that, drop a note in the comment thread or better yet, find your representatives in Congress and tell them.

Geothermal Energy Makes The “American Energy Dominance” Cut

Although Trump single-handedly snuffed out the entire US offshore wind industry upon taking office, he did include three other forms of renewable energy in his whackadoodle “American Energy Dominance” plan. Onshore wind and solar were excluded along with wave and tidal power. However biofuels made the cut, consistent with other dealmaking between Trump and his pals in the oil and gas industry. Hydropower also got a ticket to ride, consistent with its longstanding status in the nation’s power generation profile.

Hydropower projects are also enormous, imposing, costly pieces of infrastructure that disrupt natural systems on a massive scale, which may have also factored into their appeal to Trump.

Geothermal energy is the third renewable resource to win the golden ticket, and that’s where the mystery lies. Unlike biofuels and hydropower, the stakeholder footprint of geothermal energy is limited. There are literally no geothermal power plants east of the Rocky Mountains. The existing ones are clustered in red and blue states alike, including California and Oregon, where the optimal combination of rock, heat, and water exists.

But, that is about to change. Next-generation drilling and well systems are now enabling geothermal energy to spread all across the country. These new systems do not depend on naturally occurring rock formations. They can go wherever the heat is optimal.

New geothermal systems also leverage a considerable amount of know-how from oil and gas drilling, and that pretty much explains the mystery of how geothermal got itself included in the plan to “unleash” American energy. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is the former CEO of the leading oil and gas drilling firm Liberty Energy, which put up a $10 million stake in the advanced geothermal startup Fervo Energy back in 2022. So, follow the money …

… Money Comes To Money

The Liberty investment followed a series of Energy Department awards supporting the commercial development of Fervo’s new geothermal energy system, including a $4.5 million grant in 2019. That was enough to convince other investors to jump on board, including the A-list oil and gas drilling firm Devon Energy.

In January, Devon spearheaded a new $244 million round of funding for Fervo, as a next step in its relationship with the startup. “We look forward to deepening our partnership with Fervo to capture the full value of Fervo’s first-mover advantage in geothermal and the adjacencies to Devon’s core business,” said Devon EVP David Harris, referring to the startup’s first major project, the 400 megawatt Cape Station power plant in Milford, Utah.

The project is already well under way, with a grid connection expected in 2026 at partial capacity, towards the goal of full capacity in 2028

The not-for-profit electricity provider Clean Power Alliance is not waiting around to see what happens next. On Friday — the same day that Trump played the pouty, pompous schoolyard bully for his fans in Russia — CPA announced a new power purchase agreement with Fervo.

“The 15-year contract, which is built on a previous contract for 30 MW, will enable CPA to provide a total of 48 MW of non-weather dependent, clean renewable energy that is available 24/7 to support the growing clean energy demand across the 35 communities that CPA serves,” CPA explains.

“Unlike solar and wind energy, which are intermittent, geothermal energy continuously delivers reliable renewable energy,” CPA notes.

100% Geothermal Energy In 10 Years

Yes, they went there. “Continuously delivers” is something that natural gas power plants are supposed to do, and they are supposed to do it better than wind or solar. Energy storage is beginning to chip away at that lofty status, and now geothermal energy is here to finish the job.

In the energy-rich state of Pennsylvania, for example, energy researchers have deployed years of oil and gas drilling records to map the state’s geothermal energy potential. “That data shows that there is 1000-fold (or more) energy available in the form of heat underground than Pennsylvanians consume each year,” they concluded.

Though much of that heat is not hot enough to be suitable for power generation, lower-temperature resources could replace fossil fuels in  building systems and low-temperature industrial operations.

Speaking of jobs, the researchers calculate that the geothermal industry could re-employ the 40,000 workers in Pennsylvania who currently work directly in oil, gas, and coal. They further estimate that if Pennsylvania only deployed its existing oil and gas resources to drill for geothermal energy, it could meet all the thermal energy demands for commercial heating and low-temperature industrial processes statewide each year.

Pennsylvania also has some power generation potential, leading the researchers to conclude that “geothermal could generate enough energy to meet 100 percent of Pennsylvania’s electricity, and heating, and low- to medium-temperature industrial process needs in as few as 10 years.”

The Geothermal Revolution Is Global

Aside from pushing the US offshore wind industry off the tracks, Trump really can’t do much to thwart renewable energy development onshore.  He certainly can’t stop it from happening elsewhere around the world, and US geothermal stakeholders are already eyeballing ripe markets overseas.

The International Energy Agency estimates that geothermal energy currently provides for only 1% of global energy demand, concentrated mainly in Iceland, Indonesia, Türkiye, Kenya, and Italy in addition to the US. With new technologies, geothermal energycould spread to more countries and meet 15% of global energy demand by 2050.

“If geothermal can follow in the footsteps of innovation success stories such as solar PV, wind, EVs and batteries, it can become a cornerstone of tomorrow’s electricity and heat systems as a dispatchable and clean source of energy,” IEA states, taking note of the key role played by oil and gas stakeholders.

“Policy and innovation support, together with the expertise of the oil and gas sector, can help to bring down costs for new next-generation geothermal projects to levels that make it one of the cheapest dispatchable sources of low-emissions electricity,” IEA emphasizes.

So, there you have it. Trump promised to save all those coal jobs while campaigning for his first term in 2016, and failed. In the 2024 campaign he ditched the whole idea of saving jobs. Instead, he promised the moon and stars to oil and gas stakeholders. Somewhat ironically, this time around the jobs are likely to be saved, but geothermal and other renewables will do the saving, not fossil fuels.

Photo (cropped): New geothermal energy technology is enabling 24/7 renewable energy to boldly go where no geothermal systems have gone before (courtesy of Fervo Energy).